The Difference Between Being Early and Being Wrong

A fine line Silicon Valley pretends doesn’t exist.

Silicon Valley loves simple stories. Especially the ones that turn uncertainty into inevitability.

“Of course we were right.”
“Everyone else missed it.”
“We knew we were on to something.”

These narratives make success sound ordained and failure sound foolish. But in real time, there’s a truth we prefer not to confront: being early and being wrong are indistinguishable.

Blur the line in real time

From the inside, both experiences feel the same. Skepticism. Rejection. Slow traction. Doubt disguised as feedback.

This is why founders cling to the word early. It keeps hope alive. It reframes absence of proof as proof of innovation.

But the market doesn’t care about your timeline. It only cares about evidence.

Watch what reality does, not what you say

Being early means reality eventually begins to cooperate and match your insights. Being wrong means reality never quite does.

When you’re early, small things start to happen without effort. Customers embrace. Conversations get easier. Objections turn into logistics.

When you’re wrong, every step forward feels forced. You spend more time persuading than learning.

Separate patience from denial

Silicon Valley celebrates persistence, but rarely distinguishes it from stubbornness. Patience involves curiosity. Denial involves explanation.

If your response to resistance is always another story about why people don’t “get it yet,” you may not be early—you may be avoiding inconvenient data!

Treat resistance as information

People who are early lean into friction. They ask what’s missing. They change pricing, positioning, or product without changing the core insight.

People who are wrong protect the idea at all costs. They optimize decks, slogans, and narratives instead of outcomes.

Learning speed and adaptability—not confidence—are the advantages.

Distrust the comfort of hindsight

Once something works, we retroactively label it obvious. Once it fails, we retroactively label it flawed.

This creates a dangerous illusion: that the difference between vision and delusion was always clear. It wasn’t.

The people who succeeded didn’t know they were early. They behaved in ways that allowed them to find out.

Notice what surprises you

Here’s a simple diagnostic: Are you still being surprised by the market?

If customers, usage, or behavior never challenge your assumptions, you’re not exploring—you’re insulating.

Surprise is a sign you’re learning. The absence of surprise is a warning.

Accept what Silicon Valley avoids

Don’t ask, “Will the world eventually catch up?” Ask, “Is the world giving me enough signals to adjust?”

Being early requires responsiveness. Being wrong requires excuses.

Being early is rare. Being wrong is common. Pretending they’re the same delays the truth.

The real skill isn’t predicting the future. It’s knowing when the future is quietly saying no or not yet.

Mahalo!

Guy